> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.pubrio.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# How Expansion Signals Work
> The model behind Pubrio Expansion Signals — stages, the signal-type catalog, local presence, scoring, momentum, freshness, and flow — with the exact values the Expansion API returns.
Pubrio reads every expansion along a few independent axes: the **stage** a company has reached, the **signals** behind it, the **local presence** it already has, and the **momentum**, **freshness**, and **flow direction** of the move. The **API value** columns below are exactly what you'll see in responses and can filter on. For an always-current list, call the [Expansion Taxonomy](/en/api-reference/endpoint/expansions/types) endpoint.
## The Expansion Stages
Every company-and-market pair sits at a stage. The stages form a ladder from first interest to a fully established operation.
`exploring` — early interest: advertising or news activity aimed at the region, before any commitment.
`committing` — resources going in: partnerships, infrastructure, and other groundwork.
`expanding` — a foothold forms: local hiring, in-region leadership, or a physical office.
`scaling` — actively running: scaling the team and launching products locally.
A single piece of activity does not move a company up a stage — Pubrio looks for a corroborated pattern first.
## Two axes: expansion signals vs. local presence
Pubrio reads a company's position on **two independent axes**, and the API surfaces both — which is why the same company can show an active expansion stage *and* an established local footprint at the same time.
Derived from active expansion **signals** — hiring, ads, news, a new office. Answers *"what is the company doing to enter this market right now?"* (`exploring` → `scaling`).
Derived from the company's actual **footprint** — the size of its detected in-market team and any known office. Answers *"what does the company already have on the ground?"*
They don't always agree, and that's intentional:
* A company can be **`committing` or `expanding` by signals** while already showing a sizeable **local team** — it has a foothold and is actively deepening it, not entering cold. The in-market presence overlay reads this as *scaling* / *deepening* rather than a fresh entry.
* A market with a real local presence but **no active expansion signals** surfaces as the **`established`** stage — a long-standing operator that isn't making new moves right now. These are excluded from new-expansion views by default; include them (`is_include_established`) when you want the full footprint.
`exploring` / `committing` / `expanding` / `scaling` describe the **motion**; `established` and the presence overlay describe the **footprint**. Read them together to tell whether a company is breaking in, deepening, or simply settled.
## Signal Types
Each signal type points to the stage it most strongly indicates. Premier signal types are higher-prominence indicators.
`AD` · Exploring · Standard
Campaigns targeted at the market's audience.
`NEWS` · Exploring · Standard
Funding, partnerships, and launch coverage tied to the region.
`INFRA` · Committing · **Premier**
Operational infrastructure footprint in the market.
`PARTNER` · Committing · Standard
Local partnerships and channel relationships.
`EXEC` · Expanding · Standard
Leadership roles based in the market.
`OFFICE` · Expanding · Standard
A physical office or registered presence.
`HIRE` · Expanding · Standard
Operational roles posted in the market.
`SCALE` · Scaling · Standard
Growing the local team and operations.
`PRODUCT` · Scaling · Standard
Products or services launched locally.
Hiring signals (`HIRE`, `EXEC`) are often the earliest concrete evidence of a market move and frequently tell you *which function* is expanding — sales, engineering, or operations — via the underlying job data.
## Expansion Score and Confidence
How significant and active the expansion is. Sort by it so the most decisive movers rise to the top of a market.
How much corroborating evidence exists — a company with several independent signals reads more confidently than one resting on a single source.
## Momentum, freshness, and flow
Beyond the stage, each expansion carries a momentum, a freshness, and a flow direction. These are independent filters you combine to express exactly the query you want.
The trajectory of the move through the stages.
| Momentum | API value | Meaning |
| ---------- | ------------ | ----------------------------------------------- |
| New | `new` | Just appeared. |
| Advancing | `advancing` | Moving up the stages — accelerating in. |
| Steady | `steady` | Continuing at a consistent level. |
| Retreating | `retreating` | Weakening or reversing — possibly pulling back. |
How recent the evidence is, so a strong-but-old signal is never mistaken for a current one.
| Freshness | API value | Age of evidence |
| --------- | --------- | -------------------- |
| Fresh | `fresh` | Within \~30 days |
| Cooling | `cooling` | \~30–60 days |
| Stale | `stale` | \~60–90 days |
| Cold | `cold` | Older than \~90 days |
Which side of the expansion to look at, relative to the markets you care about.
| Flow | API value | Selects |
| -------- | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------ |
| Inbound | `inbound` | Companies expanding **into** the selected markets. |
| Outbound | `outbound` | Companies expanding **out from** the selected markets. |
| All | `all` | Both directions. |
How strong an individual piece of evidence is.
| Strength | API value | Meaning |
| --------- | ----------- | --------------------- |
| Low | `low` | Weak evidence. |
| Medium | `medium` | Moderate evidence. |
| High | `high` | Strong evidence. |
| Very high | `very_high` | Very strong evidence. |
Flow direction (`inbound` / `outbound`) is **not** the same as momentum (`advancing` / `retreating`). Flow is about *which side of the border* you're looking at; momentum is about *whether the move is speeding up or slowing down*.
## Polarity: expansion vs. contraction
Most signals indicate growth, but Pubrio also detects **contraction** — evidence that a company is scaling back. Each signal carries a **polarity**, so you can spot retreats as clearly as advances (useful for churn-risk monitoring).
| Polarity | API value | Meaning |
| ----------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Expansion | `expansion` | Evidence of growth into the market. |
| Contraction | `contraction_leading`, `contraction_confirming`, `contraction_lagging` | Scaling back, from earliest indication to confirmed retreat. |
## Putting it together
A high-value lead is typically a **fresh**, **advancing**, **high-strength** signal in the **stage** that matches your offer, flowing in the **direction** that fits your territory — cross-checked against local presence to see whether it's a cold entry or an existing team deepening. The Expansion API exposes every one of these as a filter and a field.
Every request filter and response field, with types and values.
Walk one company's expansion end to end.